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 Knowing the cattle, knowing the data

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df



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PostSubject: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:39 am

From Dave Nichols in IA (posted on Advantage):

Data is automatically submitted when a sire's daughter reports her first calf. She is compared to the other sires daughters contemporary group and the Epd is reported as a deviation as are all Epds that are based on phenotypic data.

The first HP sire summery we had the highest EPD (Nichols Extra H6) we also had the worst bull (Nichols Black Ink). I was sure that Extra H6 was accurate, but I was sure that Black Ink's Epd was incorrect, because his beautiful females fit all the parameters of what are considered ideal Angus cows and all had visual indicaters of fecundity. I said to our foreman, Bill Antisel, that Black Ink surely was not that bad. He retorted, "are you kidding, we don't have any of the bitches left". I challenged him to a bet for the best steak in Iowa that we had daughter in our herd because they would be 4 -8 years old in the prime of their lives. We had my partner, Lil, print out a sheet on Extra H6 and Black Ink's daughters in our inventory. I nearly dropped my teeth when I say that we only had 2 daughters of Black Ink and told Bill that I was not going to enjoy the CAP New York Strip much, but planned to collect. With a broad and cocky smile, "he said, those two daughters are in the open pen and are going to become hamburger. Black Inks daughter left because they were open. We breed around 300 heifers a year, and I note the sires daughters that are open the first year as virgins and their second calves. But after that they become part of our cow herd and we cull or keep them based on their calves.

By the way, in this time period that we were culling all these Black Ink daughters we only had two Extra H6 daughters that were open or culled for anything.

This is how I sort A.I. bulls regarding female sires. Sort Sire Summary for those sires whose daughters are in the top 10-15% for all the following traits. Heifer Pregnancy: Maternal Calving Ease; $Weaning. In other words, are they fertile, can they have a big calf easily, and how many pounds will she wean. Frankly, that's what beef cows are supposed to do. End of story!

Fair warning.. you'll be heading to your semen tanks and pitching a bunch of semen that were rumored to sire great females.

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Grassfarmer



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:47 am

Maybe taking away the wrong message here but I'm not that interested in taking advice from someone that has to go and ask their foreman what cattle they actually have in their inventory before issuing advice. If you don't know your own cattle you don't know very much.
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 10:56 am

amazing...was just formulating an Advantage post...but a waste among registered breeders...

here it is...anyone have a picture of Nichols Black Ink..?

Quote :
Originally posted by manofthesoil
[br]Data is automatically submitted when a sire's daughter reports her first calf. She is compared to the other sires daughters contemporary group and the Epd is reported as a deviation as are all Epds that are based on phenotypic data.

The first HP sire summery we had the highest EPD (Nichols Extra H6) we also had the worst bull (Nichols Black Ink). I was sure that Extra H6 was accurate, but I was sure that Black Ink's Epd was incorrect, because his beautiful females fit all the parameters of what are considered ideal Angus cows and all had visual indicaters of fecundity. I said to our foreman, Bill Antisel, that Black Ink surely was not that bad. He retorted, "are you kidding, we don't have any of the bitches left". I challenged him to a bet for the best steak in Iowa that we had daughter in our herd because they would be 4 -8 years old in the prime of their lives. We had my partner, Lil, print out a sheet on Extra H6 and Black Ink's daughters in our inventory. I nearly dropped my teeth when I say that we only had 2 daughters of Black Ink and told Bill that I was not going to enjoy the CAP New York Strip much, but planned to collect. With a broad and cocky smile, "he said, those two daughters are in the open pen and are going to become hamburger. Black Inks daughter left because they were open. We breed around 300 heifers a year, and I note the sires daughters that are open the first year as virgins and their second calves. But after that they become part of our cow herd and we cull or keep them based on their calves.

By the way, in this time period that we were culling all these Black Ink daughters we only had two Extra H6 daughters that were open or culled for anything.

This is how I sort A.I. bulls regarding female sires. Sort Sire Summary for those sires whose daughters are in the top 10-15% for all the following traits. Heifer Pregnancy: Maternal Calving Ease; $Weaning. In other words, are they fertile, can they have a big calf easily, and how many pounds will she wean. Frankly, that's what beef cows are supposed to do. End of story!

Fair warning.. you'll be heading to your semen tanks and pitching a bunch of semen that were rumored to sire great females.



We live in a data-based world, and it’s our responsibility to sell
genetics to our customers that will make them money. , both of which can be
monitored through the MaternalPlus program.
Details
American Angus Association®
3201 Frederick Ave. St. Joseph, MO 64506 • 816.383.5100 • www.angus.org
— Dave Nichols, Nichols Genetics


how does 10 years plus after the fact data allow one to exercise "it’s our responsibility to sell
genetics to our customers that will make them money
...couldn`t you have seen this coming? how?

isn`t there a hell of a difference in the data that allows one to select rather than monitor ? what would that data be? Since fertility has low heritability, how can you create a selection tool rather than just monitor?
doesn`t heritability increase with selection pressure? is the reason heritability of fertility is so low is no one selects for fertility, choosing merely to cull for it?
mike keeney
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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:11 am

I guess I took it differently. I don't necessarily know how many daughters of a sire I have without looking it up. I do notice influence of certain sires disappearing over time. They are allowed to fail without regard if that is what they need to do. Others tend to predominate and I allow them to do so without prejudice.

I think GC is rivaling the pesky little canine in diminishing the possibility of anything of substance taking place.
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:36 am

Grassfarmer wrote:
Maybe taking away the wrong message here but I'm not that interested in taking advice from someone that has to go and ask their foreman what cattle they actually have in their inventory before issuing advice. If you don't know your own cattle you don't know very much.

I took this as a testament to Bill, who knew which cattle were not working (and hopefully working). Dave has always been the guy in the office while Bill has been out with the cows. I don't know how much Bill gets to say about what bulls are used or which ones are discarded, but I suspect a fair amount. Bill would certainly have some veto power if the bull was out of a cow with a bad udder, poor disposition, etc.

So in this case, if you had asked Bill, you would get a different answer than Dave. Bill has the data in his head and has probably known for a while that Black Ink's daughters were not that good while Dave, and the rest of the world, "waited" for an EPD to tell him the same thing.

The wait is actually not that long; daughters are exposed to bulls and/or AI'd and in less than a year the producer has data to submit to the breed association. This information can actually be computed into EPDs before you know the weaning weights of the calves of those daughters. But the EPD can only be computed if the data is turned in.

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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:40 am

Kent Powell wrote:
I guess I took it differently. I don't necessarily know how many daughters of a sire I have without looking it up. I do notice influence of certain sires disappearing over time. They are allowed to fail without regard if that is what they need to do. Others tend to predominate and I allow them to do so without prejudice.

I think GC is rivaling the pesky little canine in diminishing the possibility of anything of substance taking place.

And I think Dave sells most, if not all, of his cattle to commercial producers. What rises to the top get propagated and what fails is probably allowed to fail. That is not to say Dave hasn't promoted a bull that was a loser or tried to protect his own herd by using few outside bulls, but his selection within his herd has a lot to do with what his commercial producers want.

This is not to defend Dave; I applaud those who allow the loser to leave the herd. "Open, ready to flush" should not mean "she did not get bred so she is in the sale as a potential donor".
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:44 am

df wrote:
Grassfarmer wrote:
Maybe taking away the wrong message here but I'm not that interested in taking advice from someone that has to go and ask their foreman what cattle they actually have in their inventory before issuing advice. If you don't know your own cattle you don't know very much.

I took this as a testament to Bill, who knew which cattle were not working (and hopefully working). Dave has always been the guy in the office while Bill has been out with the cows. I don't know how much Bill gets to say about what bulls are used or which ones are discarded, but I suspect a fair amount. Bill would certainly have some veto power if the bull was out of a cow with a bad udder, poor disposition, etc.

So in this case, if you had asked Bill, you would get a different answer than Dave. Bill has the data in his head and has probably known for a while that Black Ink's daughters were not that good while Dave, and the rest of the world, "waited" for an EPD to tell him the same thing.

The wait is actually not that long; daughters are exposed to bulls and/or AI'd and in less than a year the producer has data to submit to the breed association. This information can actually be computed into EPDs before you know the weaning weights of the calves of those daughters. But the EPD can only be computed if the data is turned in.


And the HP accuracy of 15 daughter sire groups is what?
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:52 am

df wrote:
Kent Powell wrote:
I guess I took it differently. I don't necessarily know how many daughters of a sire I have without looking it up. I do notice influence of certain sires disappearing over time. They are allowed to fail without regard if that is what they need to do. Others tend to predominate and I allow them to do so without prejudice.

I think GC is rivaling the pesky little canine in diminishing the possibility of anything of substance taking place.

And I think Dave sells most, if not all, of his cattle to commercial producers. What rises to the top get propagated and what fails is probably allowed to fail. That is not to say Dave hasn't promoted a bull that was a loser or tried to protect his own herd by using few outside bulls, but his selection within his herd has a lot to do with what his commercial producers want.

This is not to defend Dave; I applaud those who allow the loser to leave the herd. "Open, ready to flush" should not mean "she did not get bred so she is in the sale as a potential donor".
One thing contributing to the accuracy at Nichols would be, if they fail, it was fertility, not lack of feed...but DF, if the heritability is only 10%, what does it matter in the next generation? or is the management so good at Nichols that the heritability of fertility would actually be much higher there than where the feed supply is less?

ps...I sent Dave this thread link; just to pacify the accusers of "we are discussing this behind his back"
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:53 am

MKeeney wrote:


how does 10 years plus after the fact data allow one to exercise "it’s our responsibility to sell
genetics to our customers that will make them money
...couldn`t you have seen this coming? how?

isn`t there a hell of a difference in the data that allows one to select rather than monitor ? what would that data be? Since fertility has low heritability, how can you create a selection tool rather than just monitor?
doesn`t heritability increase with selection pressure? is the reason heritability of fertility is so low is no one selects for fertility, choosing merely to cull for it?
mike keeney
www.keeneyscorner.com[/color]

If one agrees with the definition of HP and STAY, then there are tools to select for fertility. Phenotypic selection, (selection for type) can be valuable, but there are "Bonsma" type cows that come up open or don't breed as heifers so the EPDs and type selection could be seen as additional tools for each other where each has its limitations.

Would a picture of Black Ink tell you as much as pictures of his daughters??

Even in controlled environments, such as confinement swine, the heritability of fertility remains relatively low. I contend there is some selection on other traits that may or may not be correlated to fertility. However, over time, there becomes more or less emphasis on fertility as their economic emphasis change.

I think the common practice in swine genetics is to casterate all but two males in a litter for the next generation of boars. Generation turnover is so important to swine companies, some have hired people basically for the sole purpose of determining the best ways to improve turnover.


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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 11:58 am

MKeeney wrote:
df wrote:
Grassfarmer wrote:
Maybe taking away the wrong message here but I'm not that interested in taking advice from someone that has to go and ask their foreman what cattle they actually have in their inventory before issuing advice. If you don't know your own cattle you don't know very much.

I took this as a testament to Bill, who knew which cattle were not working (and hopefully working). Dave has always been the guy in the office while Bill has been out with the cows. I don't know how much Bill gets to say about what bulls are used or which ones are discarded, but I suspect a fair amount. Bill would certainly have some veto power if the bull was out of a cow with a bad udder, poor disposition, etc.

So in this case, if you had asked Bill, you would get a different answer than Dave. Bill has the data in his head and has probably known for a while that Black Ink's daughters were not that good while Dave, and the rest of the world, "waited" for an EPD to tell him the same thing.

The wait is actually not that long; daughters are exposed to bulls and/or AI'd and in less than a year the producer has data to submit to the breed association. This information can actually be computed into EPDs before you know the weaning weights of the calves of those daughters. But the EPD can only be computed if the data is turned in.


And the HP accuracy of 15 daughter sire groups is what?

The accuracy of HP would be relatively low. The scary thing is to increase turnover and not monitor/select for economically relavant traits, such as fertility, and find in three generations that it has become much harder to get females bred or get the 2- and 3-yr-olds to breed back.

One option is to slow generation turnover and only select from the older cows. Another option is to gather data on every generation from multiple contemporary groups and use EPDs created off much younger females.
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:04 pm

MKeeney wrote:
df wrote:
Kent Powell wrote:
I guess I took it differently. I don't necessarily know how many daughters of a sire I have without looking it up. I do notice influence of certain sires disappearing over time. They are allowed to fail without regard if that is what they need to do. Others tend to predominate and I allow them to do so without prejudice.

I think GC is rivaling the pesky little canine in diminishing the possibility of anything of substance taking place.

And I think Dave sells most, if not all, of his cattle to commercial producers. What rises to the top get propagated and what fails is probably allowed to fail. That is not to say Dave hasn't promoted a bull that was a loser or tried to protect his own herd by using few outside bulls, but his selection within his herd has a lot to do with what his commercial producers want.

This is not to defend Dave; I applaud those who allow the loser to leave the herd. "Open, ready to flush" should not mean "she did not get bred so she is in the sale as a potential donor".
One thing contributing to the accuracy at Nichols would be, if they fail, it was fertility, not lack of feed...but DF, if the heritability is only 10%, what does it matter in the next generation? or is the management so good at Nichols that the heritability of fertility would actually be much higher there than where the feed supply is less?

ps...I sent Dave this thread link; just to pacify the accusers of "we are discussing this behind his back"

I doubt that the heritability of fertiliity is (much) higher at Nichols and high feed resources might mask some fertility issues. I think some fertility issues might be covered up when the cattle are only evaluated in one environment as a manager might subconciously know how to get a high percent bred but customers don't provide the same management.

And in a small population, genetic drift (losing alleles) can be significant.

I think inherit fertility might be improved more if the environment is more challenging. How many times have we heard "those daughters can get pretty thin and still breed back easily"?


Last edited by df on Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:06 pm

df, you seem to keep contradicting yourself...
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:17 pm

MKeeney wrote:
df, you seem to keep contradicting yourself...

such as............?
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:22 pm

Question


Last edited by df on Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:31 pm

Summary of heritability (h2) estimates for commonly used reproduction traits in beef cattlea

Trait h2 References

Age at first calving
<0.10 Smith et al., 1989; Martinez-Velazquez et al., 2003
0.20-0.30 Morris et al., 1992, 2000; Gutierrez it al., 2002

Age at puberty
<0.10 McInerney, 1977
0.10 to <0.20 Arije and Wiltbank, 1971; Smith et al., 1989; Martinez-Velazuez it al., 2003;
0.40 to <0.50 Laster et al., 1979; Lunstra, 1982; King et al., 1983; Martin et al., 1992
≥0.60 Smith et al., 1976; Were and Brinks, 1986; MacNeil et al., 1984

Calving date
<0.10 Buddenberg et al., 1990; MacNeil and Newman, 1994; Morris and Cullen, 1994;

Morris et al., 2000
0.20 to ≤0.30 MacNeil et al., 1984; Buddenberg et al., 1990; Gutierrez et al., 2002
0.40 to ≤0.50 Cundiff et al., 1986

Calving rate
<0.10 Meyer et al., 1990
0.10 to ≤0.20 Meyer et al., 1990

Calving success
<0.05 Meyer et al., 1990
0.05 to ≤0.10 Meyer et al., 1990

Calving to first insemination
<0.10 Donoghue et al., 2004a,b

Days to calving
<0.10 Meyer et al., 1990; Donoghue et al., 2004b

First-service conception rate
<0.10 Minick Bormann et al., 2006
0.20 to ≤0.30 Dearborn et al., 1973

Heifer pregnancy
<0.20 Evans et al., 1999
0.20 to ≤0.30 Doyle et al., 2000

Number of calves
<0.10 Meyer et al., 1990; Martinez et al., 2004a
0.10 to 0.20 Martinez et al., 2004a,b
0.30 to ≤0.40 Meyer et al., 1990

Pregnancy rate
<0.10 Toelle and Robinson, 1985; Morris and Cullen, 1994; Mathiews et al., 1995; Morris et al., 2000
0.10 to ≤0.20 Evans et al., 1999; Morris et al., 2000; Martinez-Velazquez it al., 2003; Minick
Bormann et al., 2006
0.20 to ≤0.30 Doyle et al., 1996, 2000; Evans et al., 1999; Thallman et al., 1999

Probability of pregnancy
<0.10 Koots et al., 1994
0.10 to ≤0.20 Evans et al., 1999
0.20 to ≤0.30 Snelling et al., 1995; Doyle et al., 1996, 2000
0.50 to ≤0.60 Eler et al., 2002

Scrotal circumference
0.20 to ≤0.40 Latimer et al., 1982; King et al., 1983; Knights et al., 1984
0.40 to ≤0.50 Neely et al., 1982; Bourdon and Brinks, 1986; Nelsen et al., 1986; Lunstra et al., 1988; Smith et al., 1989; Morris et al., 1992, 2000; Martinez-Velazquez et al., 2003
0.50 to ≤0.80 Coulter and Foote, 1979; Lunstra, 1982; Evans et al., 1999
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:36 pm

Question
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 12:44 pm

tmi....would you use a yearling Black Ink son given his sire`s HP?
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:07 pm

Edited data on heifers are analyzed in a threshold analysis with a full animal model and three generation pedigree.

WHY USE A 3 GENERATION PEDIGREE ON A TRAIT OF SUCH LOW HERITABILITY?
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:09 pm

MKeeney wrote:
tmi....would you use a yearling Black Ink son given his sire`s HP?

He would not be near the top of my list.
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:12 pm

MKeeney wrote:
Edited data on heifers are analyzed in a threshold analysis with a full animal model and three generation pedigree.

WHY USE A 3 GENERATION PEDIGREE ON A TRAIT OF SUCH LOW HERITABILITY?

Because relatives become more important when evaluating traits of low heritability. If the phenotype was high in hertiability, then what you see is what you get and you can make selection on the individual. When the heritability is low, it is more about doing family selection.
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:13 pm

df wrote:
MKeeney wrote:
tmi....would you use a yearling Black Ink son given his sire`s HP?

He would not be near the top of my list.
...fertility must be very heritable then....You just contradicted yourself again Smile
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:15 pm

df wrote:
MKeeney wrote:
Edited data on heifers are analyzed in a threshold analysis with a full animal model and three generation pedigree.

WHY USE A 3 GENERATION PEDIGREE ON A TRAIT OF SUCH LOW HERITABILITY?

Because relatives become more important when evaluating traits of low heritability. If the phenotype was high in hertiability, then what you see is what you get and you can make selection on the individual. When the heritability is low, it is more about doing family selection.

so it`s repeatability we`re after then? isn`t that what is important anyway?
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:17 pm

side note? what are you going to do in TN? sing Rocky Top til they get a new football coach? Smile
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df



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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:23 pm

MKeeney wrote:
df wrote:
MKeeney wrote:
tmi....would you use a yearling Black Ink son given his sire`s HP?

He would not be near the top of my list.
...fertility must be very heritable then....You just contradicted yourself again Smile

No it is not and I have not as shown in my post with references (although I think it is higher than 0.10). As Rick Bourdan states progress can be made in traits low in heritability and they are so important that selection should be placed on them.

Why would you be willing to introduce a bull with this record in your herd?
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PostSubject: Re: Knowing the cattle, knowing the data   Sun Jun 24, 2012 1:32 pm

df wrote:
MKeeney wrote:
df wrote:
MKeeney wrote:
tmi....would you use a yearling Black Ink son given his sire`s HP?

He would not be near the top of my list.
...fertility must be very heritable then....You just contradicted yourself again Smile

No it is not and I have not as shown in my post with references (although I think it is higher than 0.10). As Rick Bourdan states progress can be made in traits low in heritability and they are so important that selection should be placed on them.

Why would you be willing to introduce a bull with this record in your herd?

because you said fertility was not highly heritable...
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