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 Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle

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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:02 pm

I would like to start a new thread to build on my knowledge and availabilty of different market stratigies. I believe that in the past 3 or 4 months that things have changed in the profitability of cattle and would like to hear some others thoughts on this topic here on K C. Thanks Bob H
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Kent Powell



Posts : 659
Join date : 2010-09-24
Location : SW Kansas

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:35 pm

I sure think there is opportunity in the production of replacement heifers for several years, if moisture normalizes through the south central plains.
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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 2:17 pm

What is your moisture doing now and if I understand right you are from Kansas. What kind of cow numbers have disappeared from your area. We are having a real nice fall and early winter. Hay prices are thru the roof with allot of our product going to export in the Middle East. It is hard to keep a handle on what the future may bring and why I thought that we should all visit about this. Bob H
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Kent Powell



Posts : 659
Join date : 2010-09-24
Location : SW Kansas

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 3:03 pm

I am in SW Kansas. They are in pretty good shape 30-60 miles north of here, from what I saw this summer, so we are at the north end of the bad area. I don't know how many cows our neighbors are selling, but I hear south through Oklahoma and Texas a high percentage are gone. The largest Cow calf neighbor shipped 1,000 cows to Missouri early this spring.

We are at about 1/3 normal capacity and we had nearly a years worth of grass stockpiled. Few others had that, and many ran them on CRP Emergency grazing all summer.

We normally feed 38% cake, I heard it is over $600 now. We are feeding an alfalfa/wheat mid pellet which is now $280. Up about $100 in the last year. Hay is $200-$300 a ton about any way you figure it due to transportation.

The last two little storms brought 2" of moisture, so we are heading in a positive direction.
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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 7:51 pm

What are they doing in that area about grazing winter wheat , did it get enough moisture and get started.

The reason that I am trying to get more information is that it appears that if the government does not interfer we have some profitable times. We have marketed allot of our yearlings for next December as fat cattle and are trying to make some informed decsions on what to do with our calves that are in the cows belly.

It is hard not to lay those calves off in some fashion. What do all of you folks think. I agree that the bred heifer market may be great but hard to hedge.

Just trying to pick your brains. Bob H
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Grassfarmer



Posts : 912
Join date : 2010-09-27
Location : Belmont, Manitoba, Canada

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:27 pm

So how does that work on forward selling the fats Bob? will you feed them yourselves or do they go to a custom lot and in either case have you also got the feed costs locked in? I'm assuming you are physically keeping ownership of the cattle until next December or are you trading futures/puts on paper with them?
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Guest
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PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:27 pm

My biggest concern selling that far out is how do you decide what weight to sell them at? If a guy gets droughts or fires and the cattle are too light or you have to go early, how do you deal with that? I have to buy some steers over the next couple weeks and I wouldn't mind selling them in the same time period but the weight deal is a tough nut to crack for me.
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PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:29 pm

Bob, as you well know, forward contracting is not without risk. I assume you are refering to forward contracting your cattle anyhow. When the grain markets took the wild ride on the upswing around '05, many here had there wheat sold out a year in advance or more, much of it sold for less than $3 bushel. By the time the contracts were mature, the wheat was well over 12 on the board with a basis more than what they had it contracted for. These farmers literally had to write them a check to take their wheat, something like $.20 a bushel. Is it normal? No. One must watch the basis, or lock it in, or sell cash, to avoid such calamities. Most here learned the hard way. Also, to me, one must forward contract any inputs as well, if you choose to sell long. All of these things are like insurance, which can save you from financial ruin, but may inhibit you from ever making much as well. It is easy to insure ourselves into poverty.
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Double B

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Join date : 2010-10-07
Age : 38
Location : Mt. Liberty Oh

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 04, 2011 9:53 pm

South central Oklahoma still in a drought but the wheat around here is as good as I have seen it in six years. hay is 300 a ton.
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Kent Powell



Posts : 659
Join date : 2010-09-24
Location : SW Kansas

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Mon Dec 05, 2011 1:39 am

Bob,

There is little wheat pasture in this area. Some stands are OK. Some are not good at all. Subsoil moisture is not there, so timely rain is still important. It will be down to 7 tonight and windy the next few days, so most of the growth will be froze down. I doubt many are counting on much wheat pasture.



Bob H wrote:
What are they doing in that area about grazing winter wheat , did it get enough moisture and get started.

The reason that I am trying to get more information is that it appears that if the government does not interfer we have some profitable times. We have marketed allot of our yearlings for next December as fat cattle and are trying to make some informed decsions on what to do with our calves that are in the cows belly.

It is hard not to lay those calves off in some fashion. What do all of you folks think. I agree that the bred heifer market may be great but hard to hedge.

Just trying to pick your brains. Bob H
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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:14 pm

Iain and Jack to answer both of you, we sold the December live board and recieved a contract at 14 over weighed with a 4% shrink at the custom lot where we will feed the cattle. At the same time we are long the Sept corn at 5.66 with approxamatly 60 cent basis.
But my thought is on what every one thinks that this will be like a year from now and what anyone is doing to protect these profits or if they feel that there is no need to.
I almost feel that it will be fine not to do anything but at the same time have seen too many times that high prices cure high prices. Bob H
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MKeeney
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Posts : 5022
Join date : 2010-09-21

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:41 pm

Brian and Rick were claustrophobic here at my place; while Ky is ninth I believe in cow numbers, there`ll be no expansion here...ever in my opinion; no land, and no one to do it...
$18 spread on choice/select grade...that means there`s not enough choice being produced , doesn`t it? and not change in eating habits/demand?
why would a recession society eat higher priced meat?
what recession?
nfl signs 60% {3.3 billion/yr} increase in tv royalties...
Brian and Rick saw all our brick houses, and asked where`s the Applacahian poor? I answered, "don`t tell me the war on poverty hasn`t worked; we`re all rich here in Appalacia, only poor we know is the busted federal government" Smile
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Mark Day



Posts : 251
Join date : 2010-09-24
Age : 51
Location : Russellville, Ohio

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:39 pm

We are currently at about 30" over in rain for the year so far ...About 72" compared to the usual 42" or so. Was told today that when December is over we will have set new record rainfall amounts for 10 of the 12 months. Wish we could send some of that elsewhere. Too many people switching to crops for there to be any major change in cattle numbers in Ohio.
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Wed Dec 07, 2011 7:34 am

Mark Day wrote:
We are currently at about 30" over in rain for the year so far ...About 72" compared to the usual 42" or so. Was told today that when December is over we will have set new record rainfall amounts for 10 of the 12 months. Wish we could send some of that elsewhere. Too many people switching to crops for there to be any major change in cattle numbers in Ohio.
I never ate any beef other than a hamburger until I left home; 19 years old...pork and chicken was our meat staple...given the more efficient conversion of grain , might they be again? while beef becomes a largely grass produced product {maybe 60 days of grain?} of economic necessity, rather than of "health claim benefit" ?
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Grassfarmer



Posts : 912
Join date : 2010-09-27
Location : Belmont, Manitoba, Canada

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Wed Dec 07, 2011 7:22 pm

Does the efficiency of grain conversion in the chicken/hog industry trump the ability to be produced entirely off grass/forage if need be under a high price grain scenario? I rather like the advantages beef has - and we don't need multi-million $ climate controlled barns to produce our product either. It has taste too. Smile
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MKeeney
Admin


Posts : 5022
Join date : 2010-09-21

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Wed Dec 07, 2011 8:41 pm

Grassfarmer wrote:
Does the efficiency of grain conversion in the chicken/hog industry trump the ability to be produced entirely off grass/forage if need be under a high price grain scenario? I rather like the advantages beef has - and we don't need multi-million $ climate controlled barns to produce our product either. It has taste too. Smile

produced entirely from grass makes for a very small beef business...can you make a living with half as many cows? if so, what is the relative future price of beef compared to today?
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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:51 am

Mike I am of the opinion of Grassfarmer, but think that it will be in the future where it comes on greater volume.

What I see in the near future is the people who own the grass will become sustainable were they have struggled in the past because of low priced corn.

The other thing that will come very soon will be the profatablity of cattle that have low input type that finish with a small amount of grain and have large enough carcasses to be harvested with a 700 lb carcass or better.

Thus the use of seedless fruit as a terminal type.

The rub for most will be the direction they have choosen in the past to have one breed do it all, and they covered it up with low cost energy.

Hay and all grains in our area are over 200 dollars per ton it is not rocket science that a 2.8 % of a cows body weight per day is directly tied to 10 cents per lb of feed or 28 cents per day per 100lbs of body weight.

Another interesting thing that is going on here in Idaho is The Arab world is importing hay from this part of the world to feed milk cows so the people will not revolt against those goverrnments. At the same time we send them the capitol for oil to allow this to happen and the world goes round and round.

Just some random thoughts this morning will taking Sunday to reflect on God. Bob H
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Tom D
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Age : 38
Location : Michigan

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 12:02 pm

Bob H wrote:
Mike I am of the opinion of Grassfarmer, but think that it will be in the future where it comes on greater volume.

What I see in the near future is the people who own the grass will become sustainable were they have struggled in the past because of low priced corn.

The other thing that will come very soon will be the profatablity of cattle that have low input type that finish with a small amount of grain and have large enough carcasses to be harvested with a 700 lb carcass or better.

Thus the use of seedless fruit as a terminal type.

The rub for most will be the direction they have choosen in the past to have one breed do it all, and they covered it up with low cost energy.

Hay and all grains in our area are over 200 dollars per ton it is not rocket science that a 2.8 % of a cows body weight per day is directly tied to 10 cents per lb of feed or 28 cents per day per 100lbs of body weight.

Another interesting thing that is going on here in Idaho is The Arab world is importing hay from this part of the world to feed milk cows so the people will not revolt against those goverrnments. At the same time we send them the capitol for oil to allow this to happen and the world goes round and round.

Just some random thoughts this morning will taking Sunday to reflect on God. Bob H

Tru-dat, Tru-liner! Word to your mother.

TD on the ones and twos.
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Angus 62



Posts : 145
Join date : 2010-09-26

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 12:32 pm

The knowledge and ability to manage forage resources gets more valuable every day. Watched some young bred cows sell the other day for $100-$150 over weigh cow prices. No one wants any more cows in this part of the world this early in winter because of hay being in excess of $250 a ton. A good grass ranch with the potential for year around grazing will be a tremendous asset in years to come.
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Bob H



Posts : 425
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 12:45 pm

Angus 62 what part of the world are you from? Bob H
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:47 pm

Quote :
The rub for most will be the direction they have choosen in the past to have one breed do it all, and they covered it up with low cost energy.

Bob,
I no longer refer Angus, or AAA, or any other imitation as a breed...but merely a registry...soooo

The rub for most will be the direction they have choosen in the past to have one biological type do it all, and they covered it up with low cost energy...
amen a 100 times Smile


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Angus 62



Posts : 145
Join date : 2010-09-26

PostSubject: Re: Marketing Trueline and Commercial Cattle   Sun Dec 11, 2011 8:30 pm

We live in Northeast CO. Close enough to drought areas that hay is becoming a nonexistent commodity.
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