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PostSubject: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Sun Mar 20, 2011 8:03 am

This is something I would like to see the number nuts track as far as data, the + or - change in an animals EPDs from interim EPDs. Lets put right out there in front of God and everyone what direction those EPDs are going. I was looking at the SAV sire directory this fine morning an I see a bull that has a 69 lb birth weight but he has a +6.4 BW EPD. I'd like to know what his interim BW EPD was. Ah hell, I'm starting to assume that everyone would enter the data truthfully. It would kinda make the con complete though.
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OAK LANE FARM



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Sun Mar 20, 2011 11:11 am

I have been told that the computers red flag data that is completely inconsitant with everything else being turned in. They find some of the gross information makers/manufacturers and while they process the information for the producer they do not include it in the breed data base. That information you are talking about Jack would be the most important part of a sire summary. It would tell you which individuals ( stock and stockman) to avoid. Seedstock selection based on OUTLIERS from OUTLIARS.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:01 am

chirp chrip chrip!!! (crickets)

Are Scott and I the only ones who think this would be at least interesting? I'm new to this blogging, is this something that has been discussed before at lenght?

It seems to me that if EPDs are of such value as DF believes this would be helpful especially for birth weight. If I could look back on three generations of sires of a bull and see that there have been no significant changes in their epds that would mean something to me. If I could look back and see a bull that went from a 1 to a 4 bw that would tell me alot becaues to me that says he is throwing some great big calves.

It would also show the value, or lack there of, of an interim epd. Breeders would have to breed for more stability, at least until they figured out how to manipulate it, becaues I don't think they would want it out there that their bull went from a 1 to a 5 bw, a 55 to a 40 ww, an 18 to a 30 milk and an 115 to a 85 yw. Too many of those, and breeders would have to tighten things up a bit, wouldn't they?

It seems the AAA doesn't want you to be able to look back and see what the changes have been. At least I have trouble finding it.
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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:59 am

If you don't believe in EPDs, don't use them.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:13 pm

Quote :
If you don't believe in EPDs, don't use them.

df, so now you are in charge of EPD's deeming who can and cannot use them? They guys have a solid question and I asked a round-about question to the same on the Wye topic. How can one take an EPD like BW or CED and know that it is a fixed trait rather than just find out later that the son or daughter was on the left edge of the bell curve and grandma's or grandpa's genes will kick in in the next generation and bump them up to unacceptable values? Honest question to me. Isn't that the issue of discussing a Kenney Unwanted bull and near the Two Dot Bridge, headless rabbit, hee haw commercial cattleman's Longhorn bull?
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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:28 pm

EddieM wrote:
Quote :
If you don't believe in EPDs, don't use them.

df, so now you are in charge of EPD's deeming who can and cannot use them? They guys have a solid question and I asked a round-about question to the same on the Wye topic. How can one take an EPD like BW or CED and know that it is a fixed trait rather than just find out later that the son or daughter was on the left edge of the bell curve and grandma's or grandpa's genes will kick in in the next generation and bump them up to unacceptable values? Honest question to me. Isn't that the issue of discussing a Kenney Unwanted bull and near the Two Dot Bridge, headless rabbit, hee haw commercial cattleman's Longhorn bull?

Nothing in my statement says anything about who can and can't use EPDs.
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robert



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:31 pm

I'm thinking the notion that 'breeders' are trying to do this (add predictability) , as opposed to what the great number race is really doing which is to enable anyone with 4th grade math skills to manufacture the latest greatest. Anymore I will look first at the names of the breeder and the animals they have bred before considering if I want to add those genes to my little pool. It isn't a case of 'believing' in EPDs, it is a case of whether you trust the propagators. It seems we are being conditioned to accept these wild swings in what the intial reports said to what they really said as 'normal' and acceptable.
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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:59 pm

Jack McNamee wrote:
This is something I would like to see the number nuts track as far as data, the + or - change in an animals EPDs from interim EPDs. Lets put right out there in front of God and everyone what direction those EPDs are going. I was looking at the SAV sire directory this fine morning an I see a bull that has a 69 lb birth weight but he has a +6.4 BW EPD. I'd like to know what his interim BW EPD was. Ah hell, I'm starting to assume that everyone would enter the data truthfully. It would kinda make the con complete though.

A genetic evaluation is the applied portion of statistics. Statistics is basically determining the difference between two treatments or in this case sires for various traits. Each quantitative growth trait (controlled by many genes) basically follows a bell-shape curve. Thus, a contemporary group is required to form a bell-shaped curve. A single animal contemporary group provides no information to a genetic evaluation and cannot form a bell-shape curve. Animals that fall significantly outside of this bell-shape curve are "outliers" and may be there due to genetics or some environmental effect. It could be an under or overproduction of a growth hormone or some other endocrine function.

There are many factors that affect BW. Among them are the weather, nutrition, season of birth, the dam's genetics, the dam's utero environment and the sire's genetics. This is not an exhaustive list but you get the idea. So an animal could have a low birthweight, yet simply have a favorable environment and may not have favorable genes. The opposite could also happen. That is why a contemporary group is needed. By comparing the dams together that had access to the same diet and whose calves were born in the same season basically in the same weather, we assume the environment was similar and the differences were genetic. The heritability of the trait is important as well.

There is also the issue of epistasis. This is how genes interact with each other. Maybe gene A is turned on a little when paired with gene B but is turned on a lot with gene C. I think most of the studies in this field show little to no effect but it is an ongoing research area.

So it is possible to have a pretty good idea of the genetic level but it is never known with absolute certainty. This is reflected in accuracy. High accuracy EPDs mean we have more information which leads us to more confidence that our prediction is correct. Low accuracy EPDs mean we don't have a lot of information and the EPD may go up or down as more data is analyzed. The range that the EPD can go up or down is in the Possible Change Table. It might help you determine how much "risk" you are willing to take. For example, you might want to use a bull that is low accuracy with a BW EPD of +1 but determine the bull could be a +6 or as low as -4. Depending on your situation and tolerance for these levels, you may or may not want to use that bull on heifers.

However, you may want to use a high accuracy bull that is +1.5 and determine the bull could actually be +3 or +0. The accuracy is basically a function of information and the bull you use is a reflection of the amount of risk you are willing to take.

So the 69 lb BW means nothing by itself. It could have been the largest of all the calves in that group or maybe was out of a dam that passed on genes for a low BW. Either case make the BW less meaningful than comparing within the contemporary group and adjusting for the environment.

Certainly as the "mystery" of EPDs is discussed more, some producers realize they can manipulate contemporary groups in the favor of their pet bull. So the integrity of the breeder is important.

And one reason, potentially, that AAA does not allow the WW EPD to go above .85 unless there is some data submitted from a non-owner of the bull.



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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 2:02 pm

robert wrote:
I'm thinking the notion that 'breeders' are trying to do this (add predictability) , as opposed to what the great number race is really doing which is to enable anyone with 4th grade math skills to manufacture the latest greatest. Anymore I will look first at the names of the breeder and the animals they have bred before considering if I want to add those genes to my little pool. It isn't a case of 'believing' in EPDs, it is a case of whether you trust the propagators. It seems we are being conditioned to accept these wild swings in what the intial reports said to what they really said as 'normal' and acceptable.

EPDs also a dead on with a group of bulls but are not as accurate with any individual bull. Thus, commercial (or seedstock) producers who buy one great bull may be disappointed but if he bought 10 great bulls, would most assurately have purchased some great bulls.

Might be why AI studs buy 10 young bulls knowing that a couple will not be very good, a couple will be real good and the other bulls will be good, but not necessarily what they can sell.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:06 pm

df wrote:
High accuracy EPDs mean we have more information which leads us to more confidence that our prediction is correct. Low accuracy EPDs mean we don't have a lot of information and the EPD may go up or down as more data is analyzed.
High accuracy means the data base is so large that it is unlikely that the average(epd prediction) will change?
Low accuracy means a small data base that can easily be changed with new data?
Why no qualification of the 'width' of the data base bell curve?
A high accuracy, "proven" bull doesn't mean his progeny won't reflect the width of his data base...does it?
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 3:38 pm

RobertMac wrote:
df wrote:
High accuracy EPDs mean we have more information which leads us to more confidence that our prediction is correct. Low accuracy EPDs mean we don't have a lot of information and the EPD may go up or down as more data is analyzed.
High accuracy means the data base is so large that it is unlikely that the average(epd prediction) will change?
Low accuracy means a small data base that can easily be changed with new data?
Why no qualification of the 'width' of the data base bell curve?
A high accuracy, "proven" bull doesn't mean his progeny won't reflect the width of his data base...does it?

High accuracy does not reflect width of the database.

High accuracy means there is a lot of information; low accuracy might mean information only on the ancestors, cousins, uncles, etc and the animal itself.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 9:33 pm

df wrote:
robert wrote:
I'm thinking the notion that 'breeders' are trying to do this (add predictability) , as opposed to what the great number race is really doing which is to enable anyone with 4th grade math skills to manufacture the latest greatest. Anymore I will look first at the names of the breeder and the animals they have bred before considering if I want to add those genes to my little pool. It isn't a case of 'believing' in EPDs, it is a case of whether you trust the propagators. It seems we are being conditioned to accept these wild swings in what the intial reports said to what they really said as 'normal' and acceptable.

EPDs also a dead on with a group of bulls but are not as accurate with any individual bull. Thus, commercial (or seedstock) producers who buy one great bull may be disappointed but if he bought 10 great bulls, would most assurately have purchased some great bulls.

Might be why AI studs buy 10 young bulls knowing that a couple will not be very good, a couple will be real good and the other bulls will be good, but not necessarily what they can sell.

So if I buy 10 bulls from the same sire group 2 of them will be exceptional, 2 will suck and the remaining 6 will be scattered in between. WOW! what a tool. That is what you call dead on? I could only afford to be dead on a few times then it would break me.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:03 pm

Jack McNamee wrote:
df wrote:
robert wrote:
I'm thinking the notion that 'breeders' are trying to do this (add predictability) , as opposed to what the great number race is really doing which is to enable anyone with 4th grade math skills to manufacture the latest greatest. Anymore I will look first at the names of the breeder and the animals they have bred before considering if I want to add those genes to my little pool. It isn't a case of 'believing' in EPDs, it is a case of whether you trust the propagators. It seems we are being conditioned to accept these wild swings in what the intial reports said to what they really said as 'normal' and acceptable.

EPDs also a dead on with a group of bulls but are not as accurate with any individual bull. Thus, commercial (or seedstock) producers who buy one great bull may be disappointed but if he bought 10 great bulls, would most assurately have purchased some great bulls.

Might be why AI studs buy 10 young bulls knowing that a couple will not be very good, a couple will be real good and the other bulls will be good, but not necessarily what they can sell.

So if I buy 10 bulls from the same sire group 2 of them will be exceptional, 2 will suck and the remaining 6 will be scattered in between. WOW! what a tool. That is what you call dead on? I could only afford to be dead on a few times then it would break me.

If you bought 10 bulls that are BW +1, WW +35, YW +75 then the average of the tens bulls once proven would be about BW +1, WW +35, and YW +75. A couple might end up be higher for growth (maybe +85 or +90 for YW) while a couple would be lower for growth (maybe +60 or +65 for YW). The others would still be pretty similar to what the started at but more than likely not exactly those same numbers (maybe 65-85 for YW). So the average is just what is predicted but each individual bull could be different than the original prediction.

I think you might be looking for perfect when what you are getting is simply a better method of determining genetic merit in other herds better than using wts or ratios.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:13 pm

df, you so need some non-clean oxford shoes, you so need something real in your non- cow manure life, I'm so glad you are here though, and I mean that, what I like about it also is that we don;t have to vist you on display in a cage in the Museum of Bovine History, no your right here and handy for all of us making a living off of cattle production to ask questions and get answers and responses. Dennis Voss, Heeve Ho Haw Tribe
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:14 pm

with more data longer than anyone since 1953?, GAR keeps an interest in every bull because they don`t know who will turn out to be "superior"...or is that just a good marketing ploy?...letting every buyer dream that someday it could be his bull and his name on the cover of the Rolling Stone...on hell, I meant Select Sires...rather synonomous though...
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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:15 pm

Dennis Voss wrote:
df, you so need some non-clean oxford shoes, you so need something real in your non- cow manure life, I'm so glad you are here though, and I mean that, what I like about it also is that we don;t have to vist you on display in a cage in the Museum of Bovine History, no your right here and handy for all of us making a living off of cattle production to ask questions and get answers and responses. Dennis Voss, Heeve Ho Haw Tribe

LOL. Do you know what OEC is? I saw it on a license plate in MT.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:29 pm

Dennis Voss wrote:
df, you so need some non-clean oxford shoes, you so need something real in your non- cow manure life, I'm so glad you are here though, and I mean that, what I like about it also is that we don;t have to vist you on display in a cage in the Museum of Bovine History, no your right here and handy for all of us making a living off of cattle production to ask questions and get answers and responses. Dennis Voss, Heeve Ho Haw Tribe
DennisV,
ya gotta hand it to df, he has Timex guts...drop him, bash him, kick him around, he keeps on ticking...and you are so right, df adds greatly to the site by being "right here" and handy...thx, df
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:39 pm

OEC- Over-Educated-Cowboy OEC-Ornery-Educated-Cow OEC-Only-Educated-Cow OEC-Off-Eds- Can
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df



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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:47 pm

Dennis Voss wrote:
OEC- Over-Educated-Cowboy OEC-Ornery-Educated-Cow OEC-Only-Educated-Cow OEC-Off-Eds- Can

Do you remember the over-educated cowboy at MSU? Dr. Ray.
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Mon Mar 21, 2011 11:14 pm

Oklahoma electric coop I even have a hat somewhere albino
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Tue Mar 22, 2011 12:40 am

I'd like to quote from Denis Cadzow one of the founders of our Luing breed and a speech he gave in 1967 concerning "performance figures". It sums up my attitude to df's quest for data.

"Some commercial breeders now want bulls with performance figures. The customer is always right, but it depends if the customer is worth catering for. Does he want figures or beef? - I don't know. Perhaps we need a little of both - some new technical measurements and old ideas must be brought together. But here we must look over our shoulder again and see what has been done in the past. Many of our breeds have been performance tested for more than 100 years now. The names in a pedigree can bring to most breeders a mental picture of the animal - he or she was either big or small, bad feet or good ones, good or bad legs, and difficult animals to fatten, or heifers by that bull were bad to calve, and so on - a visual memory of every detail. That was performance testing - real stockmanship - something that has been handed down in some families for generations and must not be lost in this computer age. That is what a pedigree is meant for. It is what made British stock what it is today and whatever happens to it in the future with figures and data it cannot be said that it failed in the past"
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Tue Mar 22, 2011 2:29 am

df wrote:
RobertMac wrote:
df wrote:
High accuracy EPDs mean we have more information which leads us to more confidence that our prediction is correct. Low accuracy EPDs mean we don't have a lot of information and the EPD may go up or down as more data is analyzed.
High accuracy means the data base is so large that it is unlikely that the average(epd prediction) will change?
Low accuracy means a small data base that can easily be changed with new data?
Why no qualification of the 'width' of the data base bell curve?
A high accuracy, "proven" bull doesn't mean his progeny won't reflect the width of his data base...does it?

High accuracy does not reflect width of the database.

High accuracy means there is a lot of information; low accuracy might mean information only on the ancestors, cousins, uncles, etc and the animal itself.
why doesn`t high accuracy reflect width of the database? would not "higher accuracy" result from more narrow data bases?
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Tue Mar 22, 2011 7:24 am

df wrote:
Dennis Voss wrote:
OEC- Over-Educated-Cowboy OEC-Ornery-Educated-Cow OEC-Only-Educated-Cow OEC-Off-Eds- Can

Do you remember the over-educated cowboy at MSU? Dr. Ray.

Ansotegui? (sp?)
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:13 am

Quote :
If you bought 10 bulls that are BW +1, WW +35, YW +75 then the average of the tens bulls once proven would be about BW +1, WW +35, and YW +75. A couple might end up be higher for growth (maybe +85 or +90 for YW) while a couple would be lower for growth (maybe +60 or +65 for YW). The others would still be pretty similar to what the started at but more than likely not exactly those same numbers (maybe 65-85 for YW). So the average is just what is predicted but each individual bull could be different than the original prediction.

I think you might be looking for perfect when what you are getting is simply a better method of determining genetic merit in other herds better than using wts or ratios.

So, EPDs are about 20% accurate within individuals of a true contempory group from your example and that is better than eyeballing and taking a chance from individual data?
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PostSubject: Re: + or - change in EPDs from interim   Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:32 am

EddieM wrote:
Quote :
If you bought 10 bulls that are BW +1, WW +35, YW +75 then the average of the tens bulls once proven would be about BW +1, WW +35, and YW +75. A couple might end up be higher for growth (maybe +85 or +90 for YW) while a couple would be lower for growth (maybe +60 or +65 for YW). The others would still be pretty similar to what the started at but more than likely not exactly those same numbers (maybe 65-85 for YW). So the average is just what is predicted but each individual bull could be different than the original prediction.

I think you might be looking for perfect when what you are getting is simply a better method of determining genetic merit in other herds better than using wts or ratios.

So, EPDs are about 20% accurate within individuals of a true contempory group from your example and that is better than eyeballing and taking a chance from individual data?

And is that better than an honest breeders knowledge of his own cattle. What do you tell someone who only needs 1 or 2 heifer bulls? Good luck? Sorry that bull calved hard. He must of been the wrong one in 10. I still feel if your are right, then lets have a look at how the numbers are changing. You're right though, I still would'nt believe them because if they became important breeders would breed cattle to have the biggest move bull in the industry. The integrity of the breeder is worth more than any number be it actual wts. or EPDs.
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