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 Fat Boy ????

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EddieM



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 7:21 am

I admire both of you for having the programs and the straightforward and purposeful answers for something that seems to defy so many. What both of you express is thought, planning and execution of a breeding program to make a win/win. Nash would be proud, ... I think, ... unless Sigma is Delta to the second power or the cow is greater or less than 10. Mike, where do you find such stuff? It is worse than my ramblings: but in a nice way! Laughing 
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 8:45 am

John Nash , Nash is the subject of the 2001 Hollywood movie A Beautiful Mind. The film, loosely based on the biography of the same name, focuses on Nash's mathematical genius and also his schizophrenia.[1][2][3]

Thus further time passed. Then gradually I began to intellectually reject some of the delusional influenced lines of thinking which had been characteristic of my orientation. This began, most recognizably, with the rejection of politically oriented thinking as essentially a hopeless waste of intellectual effort. So at the present time I seem to be thinking rationally again in the style that is characteristic of scientists."[4]

Nash has suggested hypotheses on mental illness. He has compared not thinking in an acceptable manner, or being "insane" and not fitting into a usual social function, to being "on strike" from an economic point of view. He has advanced evolutionary psychology views about the value of human diversity and the potential benefits of apparently nonstandard behaviors or roles.[35]

Nash has developed work on the role of money in society. Within the framing theorem that people can be so controlled and motivated by money that they may not be able to reason rationally about it, he has criticized interest groups that promote quasi-doctrines based on Keynesian economics that permit manipulative short-term inflation and debt tactics that ultimately undermine currencies. He has suggested a global "industrial consumption price index" system that would support the development of more "ideal money" that people could trust rather than more unstable "bad money". He notes that some of his thinking parallels economist and political philosopher Friedrich Hayek's thinking regarding money and a nontypical viewpoint of the function of the authorities.[36][37]

Nash talking economics/game theory etc reminds me occasionally of Larry talking breeding/genetics...the listeners {me} sit around them nodding heads in agreement; when they barely have a clue what the lecturers are attempting to convey...mk

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larkota



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:52 am

pukerimu wrote:
 Because of the auction system the buyers end up with the absolute final say in our breeding decision and choices - if they don't like 'em they don't buy 'em - simple really

I would disagree.
have yet to see an animal not have a bid at the sale barn unless it was a walking dead.
as for breeding, I have absolute final say in my breeding decision, if you don't like 'em, walk away. My service is to show you why it is right for me, not to prove you wrong.
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Grassfarmer



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 1:25 pm

"The best bull of the 2012 crop was a similarly bred bull who was fabulous if I say so myself - we kept him - got incredibly smug about our breeding ability (well at least I did - Kevin does not have a smug bone in his body) and Murphy put a stop to all that nonsense by having another older bull break his back leg - they had been as good as gold together - sadly no hope of repair - he is now dog tucker but happily we can repeat the mating"

So two questions for you pukerimu. What made this particular bull "the best"? and how does repeating the same mating work for you? - what are the chances of producing something even phenotypically similar given nature's desire for variation?
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:42 pm

Kiwi farmers must be different to in the States then as many disappointed bull breeders around the country will attest - there are always bulls every year, everywhere which go into a sale pen and out without a shot fired.  For various reasons - one is that the buyers think they can do a better deal outside the pen than in or the bulls are just not up to scratch, poor customer service or follow up etc etc - some catalogues this year have suffered many "passing ins" - for no apparent rhyme or reason - is all up to the buyer at the end of the day. Please do not mis-understand though - we are the masters of our breeding destiny and like where our cattle are at - we are at the stage of life and have been working at this so hard that if for some reason the general buying public were "re-educated" or decided for some other reason that our cattle were not what they were looking for we would give it away rather than change our breeding goals.

The bull was "the best" on a number of fronts - he mother has produced a high priced bull every year to date.  His Grandmother was dam to Lot 3, has sold several top priced bulls and has this daughter and three others breeding in the herd.  He weighed the most at every age stage.  He had the most desirable actual scanning results, beautiful conformation, soft easy fleshing and perfect feet - maybe not as relaxed as some but that was probably because we had removed him from the mob.  I had already said to Kevin that is the bull we want to keep from his pedigree and family performance before he was scanned and before the 600 day weigh in.  We are probably going to flush the cow to increase the odds of lightening striking twice - we are at that stage that the cows can be relied on to be predictable in what they produce and we are as confident as we can be tongue  - end of the day though any progeny will be viewed with the same objectivity with which the boss looks at all animals - I did mention it is me that gets carried away with myself  lol! He never does  king
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Grassfarmer



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 9:43 pm

That's starting to sound awful mainstream pukerimu Wink  "Best" on account of high dollar progeny or relatives as judged and bid for by buyers without your intimate knowledge of the cattle. It's how so much of the conventional purebred sector operates in North America.

Don't know how your flushing will work out but from my limited experience the process seems to be able to produce a wider range of variation than would occur from natural breeding. It's been discussed on here before but maybe the egg that the cow releases naturally wasn't released at random (product of natural selection?) When you flush a cow (an unnatural process,trying to trick nature) and get 20 eggs maybe it's not a surprise you get the good, the bad and the ugly?
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 10:21 pm

Haha - as opposed to keeping the weediest, smallest, bad footed, worst tempered bull out of a cow from which everything has been steered or fattened?  Wink  What would you call that?

If we were mainstream (whatever that means) we would be peddling semen and wanting to sell embryo's, not to mention having lost all hope at objectivity - anything we are doing is for our own genetic base first and selling bulls second - cannot breed good sale bulls without good cows - now, what good is becomes subjective - we know what we think it is, and seemingly the people who come back every year think we know what it is too - wouldn't ever dare to suggest that they do not know themselves  Very Happy 

It is the family line which is attractive to us - rest assured if the flushes are rubbish they will be flushed (toilet talk here  Wink ) Will have to wait a year or three to find out - or more depending on the budget. The semen sire is a bull which is a maternal half brother to a bull we have already used. The Grand-dam just cannot help herself - no matter what bull she is put to she produces a calf (bar one) which goes into the herd or into the first half of the sale catalogue. We are more than a little sure that the cow to be flushed takes after her Mum.
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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Tue Jun 17, 2014 11:48 pm

Have you ever used the smallest bull weaned to see if they pass on their own lacking performance or if they revert to parental averages?
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:20 am

Hi Kent - cannot say we do as a rule although Fat Boy was in the lower percentile in his year group - he was 64 kg lighter than the heaviest weaned that year and about 20kg lighter than the average - his low birth weight and excellent aged dam were the attractions.  He has thrown his low birth weights but his bulls are generally at or above average by 400 days - weight that is - they are moderate to smaller frame score than the average.  Their overall fleshing, robustness, good natures and great conformation are all testaments to his family tree. We are very happy with his calved heifers coming through and plan to keep many more in the future.

Generally the better cows wean an above average calf - we generally give the cows two chances before we start drawing conclusions about their ability - unless they are obviously poor mothers first time around - then there are no second chances.  We do however keep heifers who are lower at weaning if their date of birth or other outside influences were likely contributors.  Generally they revert to what we would expect based on their pedigrees and go on to secure their place in the herd for many years weaning better than, or average calves themselves.  Because we are growing out the bulls to two and generally fattening and selling any cull heifers at 18 months, we get to see the whole range of performance for our animals - consistent good performance is easy to see, consistent poor performance even easier to spot.
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:48 am

Megan wrote:
If we were mainstream (whatever that means)

a mainstream characteristic is changing what a breed {or herd} has the most of ; into what a breed or herd has the least of...generally speaking, in the performance era {50 years}, always more growth; and the detrimental repercussions that come with more growth...the average of the herd for growth is never good enough, or most valuable; it is the growth outlier that has most value, provided all else is equal...but will the unseen that comes with more growth be equal ? of course not, because the total cost per animal rises in relation to the change in growth and the side effects of growth as a cure are well proven... change, change, change...the mainstream game where the average{center of the distribution} of a herd or of a registry is just never good enough...

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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 7:59 am

Megan wrote:
He had the most desirable actual scanning results,


Do you think you can maintain or increase this without taking on the Wagyu type you detest? Larry once said that the outlier individual, the proof that antagonisms can be temporarily overcome , are the carrot that leads the donkey over the cliff...



cattle breeding...going where every man has gone before....
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:49 am

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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:39 am

I used a lot of the highest ranking and ratioing bulls in the breed who underperformed and were disappointing here. Mainstream thinking would have had me keep on using them. The constant topic of the mainstream is how a bull worked or didn't work. It is like the perpetual use of experimental shotgun shells, recording your opinion, then they try to improve the good ones more rather than just making them more consistent. When the supplier lets you down and you can do better, DO IT. I decided to quit using them. If you are going to use the best bulls no matter what and what you have are better than what you can buy, why buy them? Oh yea, they need new blood. You need marketability. You can't just breed good cattle, you have to prevent inbreeding. It seems odd when "The odds against ever reproducing an identical full brother or full sister in cattle breeding are a fantastic 205,89 1,132,694.649 to one." (Wyeism)

So, I did what many think is the end of the world. I kept and used the smallest bull in the calf crop. What most would call the worst. He was out of a beautiful cow. As feminine as I can imagine. A borderline frail cow. His sire was her full brother. Their tree didn't have many branches either. He had a BW ratio of 120 and a weaning ratio of 83. I turned him out with the mob of bulls as a weanling sized yearling.

He never rested. He would constantly look for hot cows. Then there was a stretch when he was out what seemed like every morning. Since we don't tolerate bad behavior, this was nearly the end of him. With a little observation, we found that one of the old bulls had figured out that he could get him cornered and throw him over the fence. He had them frustrated.

This bull is a three year old now. He is still a pain. He is very vocal. He will outbreed anything in the pasture through sheer determination. If anything he is too athletic, but he doesn't look lie it. He never has filled out. I cringe at how he looks. I only tolerate him because I wanted more cows like his mother. And on to the preliminary results, his first 10 calves averaged 99 at birth, 102 at weaning. They are just as phenotypically pleasing as anything else. Where was the oft predicted wreck?

Now the wait is on to see if those daughters do what they should do. I guess that really isn't true. I don't have to wait to know. It has all been done before. We all have had a guide to get where, frankly, even most in the mainstream want to be. But, like Keynesians, the mainstream took a wrong path while internalizing that it was the only one to take. It became as much about the path as the journey or the destination. Thankfully, we have had a guide. A guide who put up signs along this path that, at one time, I thought I had discovered. A little encouragement here. A little gentle softening of over excitement with reminders about realistic expectations there. Right here at this www address there are thousands of pages of knowledge and experience sprinkled with a little humor, seasoned with a lot of humility, and a textbook of humanity between the lines.
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RobertMac



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:53 am

No aspirin needed because your questions don't concern me.
I believe profitability is best achieved with a functionally efficient cow herd and the best way to reproduce functionally efficient cows is by using their genetics. Problem is that you have to be willing to accept what your environment and/or budget will support.

I don't sell bulls...a buyer has to find me and come buy one of my bulls. I show them everything I have and tell them everything about my program, then the decision is theirs. As you can guess. I don't sell many bulls, but when I do, I price them for what I can get as freezer beef plus a couple hundred.



Last edited by RobertMac on Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:13 am; edited 1 time in total
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EddieM



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:32 pm

[url=]715[/url]

Not trying to steal thunder from Fat Boy.  Why, he is not in the same league and has no name; just "715" from his ear tag.  If I wanted to name him, I think "Slick" or "Fine for Fescue" would be good.  He looks more and more like his sire who was here some years back.  His mother did well, too, as well as most of his other kinfolks.  Sort of a southern thing to know and claim all of the relatives, including the ones in and out of prison!   Sad I do not remember how he did with WW but I could look and it would not mean much to you and not too much to me, either.  Time has passed.  A crop of calves by him are doing well and he's back out on duty.  Maybe I should call him "Crawfish" as he has learned to go up the chute and load in the trailer going backwards.  Why, who knows?  A different world from cow country, corn country or out west.   But we are here for the duration.
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:43 pm

A good joust has never lost it`s popularity as sport  Very Happy Very Happy 



being a business that cannot demonstrate differences in commercial  profitability, the problem with a cattle breeding joust is no one can demonstrate an obvious superiority of animal or system{winner}...therefore, nothing can be shown to be so vastly inferior either...
and so  the game is  continuous, it becomes the reality; and the money becomes real as well...
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 2:55 pm

We are definitely not mainstream then. Mike I did not say what the scanning results were - I just said they were the most desirable ie EMA, Rib and Rump fats and IMF all in balance - not the biggest or most of one.

If anything the mainstream in NZ are the inbreeders - but not for any type or purpose - numbers on a page is what it is all about.

Thanks for all your input - this is why I really enjoy talking (so you have noticed I am sure) and listening to you folk - we are all different but we are all the same
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:30 pm

we all want to be non-conformists   Smile ...which makes us conformists   Shocked  Shocked 
seems a good place to post Gavin`s recent newsletter...I see his selection direction {and type; not sure of size/performance level} similar to Megan`s...

June 2014

As we approach the shortest day the season remains benign. Grass is still growing albeit slowly but at least we are still getting some.
Americans keep telling me we live in the best farming country in the world. It makes me wish that they could join me on one of our penetratingly wet cold days. I must admit that looking at the weather now that I am in my dotage from inside is far better than mixing with it in the storms we get.

It would appear that the Angus breeders are beginning to question their Council members on their administration of the breed and the accuracy of their recording programme.
Every program has an “Index.” This is a mathematical calculation that aims the program in the direction that is the requirement of that particular country. The “Index” can and does change as the requirement of each country changes.
Ideally Australia should have its own index to cover its dry climate Also, it should have an index to cover the variability of the various districts.

The stud breeding industry is there to improve the commercial production of the various breeds in their country, this should never be forgotten. It is not an avenue for rich business men to try to make a clean out of money, but is a very serious job with very long term goals that requires dedication and determination to achieve success. It is not the place for fly by nighters who come in and, think that they know all about animal breeding. They spend a lot of money buying high figured social bulls looses a lot of money and get out.
There is a saying in America, that the only way to make a small fortune in cattle breeding, is to start with a big one.
Cattle breeding requires long term goals, a lot of experience in cattle handling and in breeding. The possibilities for improving the performance in the commercial cattle herd is very high, but not the way that they are going about it at the moment. We only have to look at the improvement in the sheep industry almost 100% in ten years, and where has the cattle industry has gone, I suggest backwards.

Looking at the figures in America, the commercial cattle industry at the moment has lost ground in the last four years. Whereas they suggest that the stud industry during this period has made spectacular progress. This makes you wonder how this has occurred.

Although science has not, as far as I know tried to do an assessment of the NZ industry, I would suggest that it would at least be as bad if not worse. This occurs because the present system of beef breeding just does not work. The present system of single factor selection has some factors that are antagonistic the principal ones being growth and fertility. The higher your growth becomes the less fertile the resulting daughters.

To make matters worse all the good fattening land for fattening cattle has been taken by the dairy industry. This has moved beef cow into the back country where feed is poorer and the going much steeper and difficult.
This is no place for grain reared bulls and their resulting cows. The cow must have the ability to graze poor grass and make the best of it. Recover from adverse climatic conditions ( not by having a bucket of grain fed to it every day) and still get in calf. Beef industry requirement today is probably smaller cows and both cows and bulls reared on grass so that their true potential can be measured and used.
Nothing is static in this world and sometimes changes are forced upon industries.. Those who do not meet the necessary changes will suffer.
As I said there is great improvement available in the beef industry those who do not meet the challenges of today will have no place in it tomorrow.
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 9:53 pm

Megan wrote:
Mike I did not say what the scanning results were - I just said they were the most desirable ie EMA, Rib and Rump fats and IMF all in balance - not the biggest or most of one

Megan,
if the type is right, do you believe these traits will be in "balance"? I tend to believe they will be; but I will not jump through the hoops to prove it; or to fill an epd blank in a pedigree for marketing etc...
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:40 pm

MKeeney wrote:
we all want to be non-conformists   Smile ...which makes us conformists   Shocked  Shocked 
seems a good place to post Gavin`s recent newsletter...I see his selection direction {and type; not sure of size/performance level} similar to Megan`s...

I would say we are in total agreement re type and functionality - slightly different selection criteria and family trees are probably the only differential in the size stakes.

June 2014

As we approach the shortest day the season remains benign. Grass is still growing albeit slowly but at least we are still getting some.
Americans keep telling me we live in the best farming country in the world. It makes me wish that they could join me on one of our penetratingly wet cold days. I must admit that looking at the weather now that I am in my dotage from inside is far better than mixing with it in the storms we get.

Raining here at the moment - has been doing so on and off and seemingly constantly since Monday the 9th - it can stop anytime now but you know then the forecasters say "rain about the ranges" it's going to be wet - it is disheartening when you go into town and the rain stops before you get to the main road and starts again on your return journey back up our road - sigh - at least we are almost summer safe  Neutral 

It would appear that the Angus breeders are beginning to question their Council members on their administration of the breed and the accuracy of their recording programme.

You know who Gavin is talking about  lol! 

Every program has an “Index.” This is a mathematical calculation that aims the program in the direction that is the requirement of that particular country. The “Index” can and does change as the requirement of each country changes.
Ideally Australia should have its own index to cover its dry climate Also, it should have an index to cover the variability of the various districts.

The stud breeding industry is there to improve the commercial production of the various breeds in their country, this should never be forgotten. It is not an avenue for rich business men to try to make a clean out of money, but is a very serious job with very long term goals that requires dedication and determination to achieve success. It is not the place for fly by nighters who come in and, think that they know all about animal breeding. They spend a lot of money buying high figured social bulls looses a lot of money and get out.
There is a saying in America, that the only way to make a small fortune in cattle breeding, is to start with a big one.
Cattle breeding requires long term goals, a lot of experience in cattle handling and in breeding. The possibilities for improving the performance in the commercial cattle herd is very high, but not the way that they are going about it at the moment. We only have to look at the improvement in the sheep industry almost 100% in ten years, and where has the cattle industry has gone, I suggest backwards.

Looking at the figures in America, the commercial cattle industry at the moment has lost ground in the last four years. Whereas they suggest that the stud industry during this period has made spectacular progress. This makes you wonder how this has occurred.

Although science has not, as far as I know tried to do an assessment of the NZ industry, I would suggest that it would at least be as bad if not worse. This occurs because the present system of beef breeding just does not work. The present system of single factor selection has some factors that are antagonistic the principal ones being growth and fertility. The higher your growth becomes the less fertile the resulting daughters.

To make matters worse all the good fattening land for fattening cattle has been taken by the dairy industry. This has moved beef cow into the back country where feed is poorer and the going much steeper and difficult.
This is no place for grain reared bulls and their resulting cows. The cow must have the ability to graze poor grass and make the best of it. Recover from adverse climatic conditions ( not by having a bucket of grain fed to it every day) and still get in calf. Beef industry requirement today is probably smaller cows and both cows and bulls reared on grass so that their true potential can be measured and used.
Nothing is static in this world and sometimes changes are forced upon industries.. Those who do not meet the necessary changes will suffer.
As I said there is great improvement available in the beef industry those who do not meet the challenges of today will have no place in it tomorrow.

Mike - I completely agree that if the type is right all those traits will certainly be in balance - actual scanning results will bare this out - how that convoluted BLUP then mashes them up and spits out EBV's which belie belief is beyond me - lucky that we look at the animal, look at the actuals and almost always ignore the "Estimated" figures - our faith is usually rewarded when the ultrasound is run over the backs of the progeny and provide actuals which we actually expect  Wink  and despite the "it's not what you can see that counts" can actually see - there you have it .......... avowed trouble makers and question askers - what can I say?
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pukerimu



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:47 pm

Eddie - happy to see your bull - hard to say for sure from the angle but he looks a very nice type and as you say it is the proof in the pudding of what his progeny are doing and what the other progeny of his dam and sire have and are doing - we tend to look more at the cows for family likenesses and find the older they get the more like their mothers they become - the boss can look at a cow and say "I bet she is a daughter of so and so" who has usually been dead and gone for 5 years or more and blow me down - he is always right or the cow he was looking at is a granddaughter or niece - he is very good with people faces too. It is a gift!
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:23 pm

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EddieM



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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:04 pm

MKeeney wrote:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/beef/10125703/Cattle-breeder-backs-hard-facts-production-system

Doesn't sound like he is too worried that AAA HP calculations will have to wait a week to remake the targeted numbers. Sounds like the house of cards has been exposed, once again, for being an unstable structure.
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Thu Aug 14, 2014 9:38 pm

MKeeney wrote:
http://mtmableangus.co.nz/2014-bullcatalogue.html

Megan,
it is quite refreshing to see the name "fat boy" used in such positive fashion  Very Happy

Megan must be busy calving or basking in the Fiji`s again...in case she might be napping, thought a couple late evening pics comparing my little black maternal jersey pictured bottom, to Fat Boy, just below, the beef machine, might rouse her from her slumber...



gotta laugh at the head on my right side cow, not much Scotch left in that old gal Shocked ...no, they all don`t have pinkeye; yes, Pete isn`t any bigger than the cows, but his daughters will be as big as the cows...how could that be possible in the "performance world"?



I need to get a few more cow pics to demonstrate my beef jersey look...no, the Jersey type is not so much for milk, but for fertility...what ever they lack in beefiness, can be added through the terminal sire...Wulf Cattle has proven that quite decisively ...
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PostSubject: Re: Fat Boy ????   Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:37 am

Hiya - not slumbering or in Fiji - darn it all (oh how I wish) - calving - the season has gone from benign friendly early spring/late winter weather to absolute .......... (insert any word that might sum up sleet, icy gales (and I mean gales), snow and about 6 inches of rain in the last week. Been working like banshees to minimise pain and suffering for all - especially our wallet! Lucky we do not lamb until late September or the carnage would be extensive!

Not sure what you want me to say about your bull Mike - he looks like he is in his working clothes whereas Fatboy was enjoying his summer holidays and dressed accordingly. I like the conformation of your fellow - suspect his calves arrive with no fuss and are up and running in no time. Do your cows have calves at foot when the bull is out with them?

Anyway now it is slumber time here again - back into it in the morning - break feeding young stock on rapidly diminishing kale crops and waiting until the wind stops to bring some heifers off the back of the big hill - funny how the grass is there one minute and disappeared the next when the weather turns to custard! Oh Fiji where art thou .................... cocktails by the pool sounds pretty darn nice about now ............... instead it is mud mud glorious mud!
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