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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Current Industry Model   Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:49 am

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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:03 pm

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Guest



PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:38 pm

Thanks Kent
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Grassfarmer



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Join date : 2010-09-27
Location : Belmont, Manitoba, Canada

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Jan 10, 2014 3:07 pm

Hey, that's the guy and topic we were discussing here:
http://www.keeneyscorner.com/t1075-some-contentious-reading
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alexfarms



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Age : 59
Location : Gypsum, KS

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:51 pm

In 2007 there were experts saying we'd run out of corn because of ethanol. That pile of corn is a great example of what farmers can do if they are given a fair price.
It's been 7 years, let's see if demand can stay strong enough to prevent a crash.
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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 6:57 pm

Given a fair price? Is that what you call it?
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alexfarms



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Age : 59
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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 7:07 pm

Yes it is. It's interesting to note the first tradeing day after that crop report, corn went up over 20 cents.

I started farming in 1981. Corn hit $4 in the summer of 1981. Slaughter cows sold for 20 cents a pound or less.
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RobertMac



Posts : 262
Join date : 2010-09-28
Location : Mississippi, USA

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 7:49 pm

Crop farming is single digit ROI...always has been...always wil be.
If farmers are making a good profit long enough, someone figure out a way to take it from them.
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alexfarms



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Age : 59
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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 8:07 pm

Farmer/feeders was the best way for a crop farmer to make a living through the long haul. The govt programs since 1981 just wiped that out when market prices were driven below cost if production in exchange for govt subsidies.  Custom feed yards were then able to buy corn cheaper than a farmer could raise it. That brought other cop factors into play and feed yards moved out if the hands of the farmers and into the control of packers. That was the main motivation for farmers to invest in the ethanol industry and it has paid off in a pretty solid market.  I was recently talking to the feed expert at out local elevator. He admitted the cost of ethanol/fructose corn by products have not come back down after they went up with the corn market. Too bad farmers can't control their output value like that!!

ADDED: What the govt's cheap feed programs did to the hog farmers was even worse!!!


Last edited by alexfarms on Sun Jan 12, 2014 10:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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alexfarms



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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:53 pm

Kent Powell wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkvFmIUnPNY#t=44

Do you know anyone who is actually follow his idea of marketing predominantly forage fed beef for hamburger and not shooting for the "middle meats" market?
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Kent Powell



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Location : SW Kansas

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:15 am

I don't think many SHOOT for any certain market.  I do know lots of people who prefer hamburger and buy cull cows from area farms.


Personally, we run out of steaks fast and, while fine when I was single, Hamberger every day doesn't seem to work anymore around here.    We prefer the product we produce.  Nothing even close is available on the market.  

The beef industry has a habit of giving their customers the middle finger.  The collective responsibility for the commodity pot and anything THEY do with it, is a failure.  People who wish to consume an animal that has never been sick, had antibiotics, been in a feedlot, or fed grain are mocked and ridiculed as are the producers who are willing to provide the product.  They are unacceptable.   The beef industry is too busy destroying the little tribes forming around the periphery in an attempt to protect the industry from change or challenge that the customer is left to decide to take it or leave it.  They are leaving it.
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RobertMac



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Location : Mississippi, USA

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Mon Jan 13, 2014 3:20 pm

Quote :
The beef industry has a habit of giving their customers the middle finger.

I call that 'job security'.

RobertMac, warrior of the Unacceptable Tribe
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LCP



Posts : 49
Join date : 2012-04-16
Location : north central SD

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:00 pm

Kent Powell wrote:
I don't think many SHOOT for any certain market.    I do know lots of people who prefer hamburger and buy cull cows from area farms.


Personally, we run out of steaks fast and, while fine when I was single, Hamberger every day doesn't seem to work anymore around here.    We prefer the product we produce.  Nothing even close is available on the market.  

The beef industry has a habit of giving their customers the middle finger.  The collective responsibility for the commodity pot and anything THEY do with it, is a failure.  People who wish to consume an animal that has never been sick, had antibiotics, been in a feedlot, or fed grain are mocked and ridiculed as are the producers who are willing to provide the product.  They are unacceptable.   The beef industry is too busy destroying the little tribes forming around the periphery in an attempt to protect the industry from change or challenge that the customer is left to decide to take it or leave it.  They are leaving it.

I don't disagree, but there are several of the outlying tribes whose marketing plan goes beyond product differentiation, more towards berating their competition. I'm more a fan of those who let their products stand on their own merit rather than running down the competition. Maybe I'm just a sissy.

That said, there does seem to be an attitude in the industry of either a)"educating" the consumer into submission or b)not being forthcoming with what's actually happening, and letting someone else tell it with their own slant.

I had a big-time feedlot manager tell me that you have to kill a few to make sure you're pushing them hard enough. I'm sure the economics tell him that. I guarantee the consumer didn't. It's that mindset that is giving us a black eye and making it necessary for alternatives to present themselves.

I toured a Tyson packing plant last summer with a group of other beef producers. It was like Ft Knox to get into...no cell phones, had to sign paperwork, blah blah. What I saw in there was really quite impressive. Why on earth they keep it such a secret is beyond me...the animal rights wackos show undercover footage all the time and tyson can't get a single factually accurate video up on the WWW?
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EddieM



Posts : 648
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Location : South Carolina

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Wed Jan 15, 2014 10:11 am

LCP wrote:
Kent Powell wrote:
I don't think many SHOOT for any certain market.    I do know lots of people who prefer hamburger and buy cull cows from area farms.


Personally, we run out of steaks fast and, while fine when I was single, Hamberger every day doesn't seem to work anymore around here.    We prefer the product we produce.  Nothing even close is available on the market.  

The beef industry has a habit of giving their customers the middle finger.  The collective responsibility for the commodity pot and anything THEY do with it, is a failure.  People who wish to consume an animal that has never been sick, had antibiotics, been in a feedlot, or fed grain are mocked and ridiculed as are the producers who are willing to provide the product.  They are unacceptable.   The beef industry is too busy destroying the little tribes forming around the periphery in an attempt to protect the industry from change or challenge that the customer is left to decide to take it or leave it.  They are leaving it.

I don't disagree, but there are several of the outlying tribes whose marketing plan goes beyond product differentiation, more towards berating their competition.   I'm more a fan of those who let their products stand on their own merit rather than running down the competition.  Maybe I'm just a sissy.

That said, there does seem to be an attitude in the industry of either a)"educating" the consumer into submission or b)not being forthcoming with what's actually happening, and letting someone else tell it with their own slant.

I had a big-time feedlot manager tell me that you have to kill a few to make sure you're pushing them hard enough.  I'm sure the economics tell him that.  I guarantee the consumer didn't.  It's that mindset that is giving us a black eye and making it necessary for alternatives to present themselves.

I toured a Tyson packing plant last summer with a group of other beef producers.  It was like Ft Knox to get into...no cell phones, had to sign paperwork, blah blah.  What I saw in there was really quite impressive.  Why on earth they keep it such a secret is beyond me...the animal rights wackos show undercover footage all the time and tyson can't get a single factually accurate video up on the WWW?  

Advertising is a science all to itself. Watch TV to see what sells trucks, insurance and hamburgers. Shiny trucks pulling railroad cars and illegal size loads on the highways, riding over rip rap and rock boulders that would stop a trackhoe, a talking lizard, a humanized white duck, a woman in white selling insurance in boxes, ketchup dripping from a model's lips or men who prefer buger buns made from the same old tasteless white, highly refined flour to young women's shapely rears. Kick in a animal saving ad with sad looking dogs and cats from dog and cat breeds that may generally look sad all of the time.

If you have to advertise yourself as an "alternative" then you have the right to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of your product. It can and will imply strengths and weaknesses on the competitor's products. You have to answer direct questions about the competition to be honest in my opinion. If you advertise yourself as generically generic with Angus, you will make about 7 years, it seems.

But the biggest problem is that so many do not have their own real product in the cow business. They just have the latest crop of calves for sale and act like they are the ones that will save the world from final destruction. Why not be honest and say what they are: experiments of using outside genetics, outcrosses for more variability or a seeking of particular traits, an effort to build a new breeding line, a lack of confidence in the home lines of cattle, a way to sell cattle based on popular names and herds, marketing tools or a deal where a bull had to be purchased to pay back a former purchase of the other guy?

If TV ads are effective, and they are, then the general consumer is less interested in the product and more interested in entertainment, the feeling and the extraneous versus the product itself. My father was pretty much house-bound for his final years and observed TV without being able to hear the best so the pictures were highly discerned. He said that, based on the most used ads, TV is all about eating something SO good that you need to take something for indigestion and then you need to take a laxative.

Eddie, not driving the old Chevrolet truck in the rock quarry
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:05 am

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Kent Powell



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Join date : 2010-09-24
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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Mon Oct 12, 2015 12:08 pm

Is an opinion like this even allowed if you wish to be involved in agriculture?
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outsidethebox



Posts : 75
Join date : 2010-11-17
Age : 64
Location : Goessel, Kansas

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Mon Oct 12, 2015 2:23 pm

Kent Powell wrote:
Is an opinion like this even allowed if you wish to be involved in agriculture?

While we humans are strongly egocentric a diversity of "opinions" is just as important to our social/emotional strength and well-being as genetic diversity is to physical strength and well-being.
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pukerimu



Posts : 100
Join date : 2012-06-02
Location : Norsewood, New Zealand

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:53 pm

All the more reason for NZ to stay GMO free - one of the last bastions but no doubt we eat our fair share - most of our flour is imported.
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EddieM



Posts : 648
Join date : 2010-09-24
Location : South Carolina

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Thu Nov 05, 2015 9:58 am

Do you ever look at a site with old semen for sale and wonder "why"? Why would you want to sell that to somebody else knowing what you have experienced? Why did you even keep it? Why was that "$8/straw and buyer must take all" ever thought to be superior? How on earth will anybody be able to breed something useful from that bull? Why would anyone give that much for semen from a bull that never left much behind?

And it is a time to reflect. Hey, I had forgotten about those guys - they sure didn't last long. Wow, I forgot that they raised that bull. Look at all of the bulls that they used and now are using something totally different. All of those bulls that they sold for big money are now not even somewhat valuable. Not too many, if any, that you can say have stayed the course.

In a way, there is pity for new and self-blinded buyers who bought into the ideas, hopes and dreams and used sons and daughters of bulls that were like fireworks: a quick flash and then tossed aside of another sparkler. Sad part, there are still firework stands on every corner for every young and unknowing dreamer.
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Mark Day



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Age : 51
Location : Russellville, Ohio

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Nov 06, 2015 5:25 am

In order to learn, you must first experience failure. The problem is those suckers don't realize those results are unacceptable and that they are failing.
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Kent Powell



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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:34 pm

Here's to the unknowing dreamer. I applaud them. There is something to be said about excitement and enthusiasm. I find it infectious and delightful. (Ever been the new guy in a room full of experienced know-it-alls? Pretty exciting place, isn't it? It is the opportunity to experience death and be the only one aware of it. ) Yes, it is painful to watch others make the same mistakes most of us have made. It has been an excruciating decade getting to watch my own children decide to reinvent so many wheels and have to experience everything themselves including the failures. It has also been more rewarding than anything else. What would have been more painful would have been to allow their enthusiasm and creativity to be extinguished by the so called educational system.



What really is superior? To me superior is their performance in my pasture. I will never have anything superior based on price. My soul is not for sale. I may roll in the mud with pigs, but they are mine and I know and control the outcome. Several people in this world have used and sold the most pathetic crap cattle (in my opinion) as superior, cashed the check, and they are still considered breeders of the highest esteem. (I will give one credit, as I built my breeding program in my head around his bull, based on a picture and EPD's and when I called to order semen he told me not to use him. ) I eventually did, after he was leased to a promotional "Stud". He ended up being a defect carrier. I didn't have any left. They failed. An honest breeder, but the marketing was Status Quo.

I do wonder sometimes why anyone would want to use old bulls that were bad. Then I remember, history is viewed through the eyes of those who record it. What is recorded is the promotion. Those who know the bulls are a bust still promote the calves as superior and continue the historical record in a positive light. Truth will remain a shadowy entity until both good and bad are in the open. I know, if you are in the inner circle, the truth is there. There shouldn't be an inner circle who know truth and market fluff, but that is how the world works. There are many old bulls that are still vastly superior to most current bulls. Do I need them? No. But you have to understand that in marketing, selling the legend is still easier than selling superiority in its current form and having to start from scratch. While they were flawed, all are flawed and a known problem is manageable. Some consider eliminating those known problems as improvement, but you still have to compete with the legend.

Seth's Blog Idiosyncratic


An aspect in agriculture I find a bit irritating is intolerance. Not just a little, but complete intolerance.

Is everyone a fool or a sucker when they don't do and believe exactly as you? That is a mighty high pedestal to assume.
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larkota



Posts : 310
Join date : 2010-09-23
Age : 57
Location : Kimball South Dakota

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Nov 06, 2015 2:26 pm

from disadvantaged
"I would highly reccomend to any angus breeder to attend the Angus Annual meeting, tradeshow and eductaion seminars. The software the AAA uses to produce EPD's is supplied by university of Georgia. The AAA is in the process of transitioning to a single step model to produce genomic enhnaced epd's.
I would highly reccomend pulling DNA samples on all animals in your herd that are used for breeding purposes. Even if you do no any thing with the samples you will have them if the need arises to test for a future unidentified challenges."


for the life of me I do not know how DNA samples will help me with income tax, drought, flooding, retirement. went to the annual meeting years ago....fooled, foolish or both? if not having papers make me a non angus breeder, what am I ?
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:55 pm

Kent Powell wrote:
Here's to the unknowing dreamer.  I applaud them.  There is something to be said about excitement and enthusiasm.  I find it infectious and delightful.  (Ever been the new guy in a room full of experienced know-it-alls?  Pretty exciting place, isn't it?  It is the opportunity to experience death and be the only one aware of it.  )   Yes, it is painful to watch others make the same mistakes most of us have made.  It has been an excruciating decade getting to watch my own children decide to reinvent so many wheels and have to experience everything themselves including the failures. It has also been more rewarding than anything else.   What would have been more painful would have been to allow their enthusiasm and creativity to be extinguished by the so called educational system.  



What really is superior?  To me superior is their performance in my pasture.  I will never have anything superior based on price. My soul is not for sale.  I may roll in the mud with pigs, but they are mine and I know and control the outcome.    Several people in this world have used and sold the most pathetic crap cattle (in my opinion) as superior, cashed the check,  and they are still considered breeders of the highest esteem.  (I will give one credit, as I built my breeding program in my head around his bull, based on a picture and EPD's and when I called to order semen he told me not to use him. )  I eventually did, after he was leased to a promotional "Stud".  He ended up being a defect carrier.  I didn't have any left.  They failed. An honest breeder, but the marketing was Status Quo.

 I do wonder sometimes why anyone would want to use old bulls that were bad.  Then I remember, history is viewed through the eyes of those who record it.  What is recorded is the promotion.  Those who know the bulls are a bust still promote the calves as superior and continue the historical record in a positive light.  Truth will remain a shadowy entity until both good and bad are in the open.  I know, if you are in the inner circle, the truth is there.  There shouldn't be an inner circle who know truth and market fluff, but that is how the world works.  There are many old bulls that are still vastly superior to most current bulls.  Do I need them?  No.  But you have to understand that in marketing, selling the legend is still easier than selling superiority in its current form and having to start from scratch. While they were flawed, all are flawed and a known problem is manageable.  Some consider eliminating those known problems as improvement, but you still have to compete with the legend.  

Seth's Blog Idiosyncratic


An aspect in agriculture I find a bit irritating is intolerance.  Not just a little, but complete intolerance.



Is everyone a fool or a sucker when they don't do and believe exactly as you?  That is a mighty high pedestal to assume.  



'Man is the measure of all things' Protagoras born 490bc-died 420bc
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MVCatt



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Age : 43
Location : SW Penn

PostSubject: Re: Current Industry Model   Sat Nov 07, 2015 6:39 am

I don't think most mainstream breeders even know what they have. They're too busy moving on to the next best thing. So who knows maybe those older bulls are just as good as what they're using now. I'm so glad I don't really have to worry about genetic decisions anymore. They contribute very little to the profitability of this place. Sent some steers out of these low numbered (if they were registered) maternal bulls to a graded sale in Virginia last week, those calves topped the market. The heifers left will make acceptable replacements...if needed, the rest will go for freezer beef. I really don't know what else anyone could want. Unless you're selling miracles and dreams...
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