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  The Lost Generation

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larkota



Posts : 310
Join date : 2010-09-23
Age : 57
Location : Kimball South Dakota

PostSubject: The Lost Generation   Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:15 pm

read from top to the bottom, then from bottom to the top.

The Lost Generation
Jonathan Reed

I am part of a lost generation.
And I refuse to believe that
I can change the world.
I realize this may be a shock, but
“Happiness comes from within”
Is a lie, and
“Money will make me happy”
So in thirty years, I will tell my children
They are not the most important thing in my life.
My employer will know that
I have my priorities straight because
Work
Is more important than
Family
I tell you this:
Once upon a time
Families stayed together
But this will not be true in my era.
This is a quick fix society
Experts tell me
Thirty years from now, I will be celebrating the tenth anniversary of my divorce.
I do not concede that
I will live in a country of my own making.
In the future,
Environmental destruction will be the norm.
No longer can it be said that
My peers and I care about this Earth.
It will be evident that
My generation is apathetic and lethargic.
It is foolish to presume that
There is hope.

And all of this will come true unless we reverse it.
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MKeeney
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Posts : 4007
Join date : 2010-09-21

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:47 am

you mean "it`s not the economy, stupid" ???
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MKeeney
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Join date : 2010-09-21

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:08 am

I like the idea of moving it to KC

Has the AAA lost it? they`re moving the annual meeting to KC ??? Pat won`t have to travel so far; we may need a faster connection though...with Pat and Foxx both working on defects, the lines will be hot...I`m looking for some great northern semen for Pat; if I find it, I want $10,000 /straw...I want him in Tom`s LEGENDS book as the highest valued bull ever...for his defects, not his positives...now wouldn`t that be a feat?
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:26 pm

I see TC Stockman 365 came back ddf-- that took care of most of my issues.

the most laughable statement I ever read at AdCC...THANK goodness all the progeny I ever experienced were at a neighbors...
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Sun Dec 22, 2013 8:24 am

saw a funny AND serious movie last night on survival of the fittest... titled American Hustle...not suitable for those still believing in Santa  Smile
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Wed Dec 25, 2013 8:39 am

MKeeney wrote:
saw a funny AND serious movie last night on survival of the fittest... titled American Hustle...not suitable for those still believing in Santa  Smile

What an ingenious hustle...when your ratings begin to slip, create controversy {we`ve witnessed that at KC as well  Wink } ...and even pull guys like LL away from the Science channel to see what all the furor is about... Very Happy 

•"O that he were here to write me down an ass! But masters, remember that I am an ass: though it be not written down, yet forget not that I am an ass."
- William Shakespeare, Much Ado About Nothing,  Very Happy
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Fri Jan 03, 2014 2:59 am

more American Hustle...

TAPPING INTO THE REAL MARKET

An important objective of any purchasing organization is to leave every seller with the perception that they are beating the market with their transaction. If the broader market lacks transparency then the trick is to benchmark everyone to something visible that they can see and convince them they are better off than what they see.

Aids in this deception are $1 over contracts. With extremely small pools of live cash cattle, it becomes easy to point to the cash trade and offer $1 over or build a grid based on the cash reported trade. Of course, the cash trade may include Mexican cattle, typically discounted $35/head or brahmin offerings or heiferettes. Unless the seller can identify the actual cattle and the actual carcass results when they are reported, benchmarking against this small pool means very little.
This past week demonstrated the dangers of reporting cash trades dependent on a small pool of cattle that becomes representative of a much larger pool. The risk is volatility. So many cattle are committed under so many varying arrangements that this small pool is setting the stage for extreme results.

Two week's ago the seeds of this distortion in the market were apparent. Packers purchased all the cattle they could in the small pool of cash trades at $130. They dared not up the cash price for fear of pricing formula cattle higher so they purchased a few more cattle at higher prices, but established those trades in the beef. In the beef purchases are difficult to read because they are not accompanied by the carcass results.

Packers were still short of inventory coming into Christmas week and found stubborn sellers among the small pool of cash sellers. Stubborn sellers in a restricted sized pool of cattle means high volatility. High volatility does not favor packers or feeders but increases the odds of high price variations. The week before Christmas should have seen market prices at $132 instead of $130 and now those prices have pushed to $136.

All of this would be solved by a cash market build on negotiated grids for carcass beef. One trade standard for the industry would place all transactions on the same footing and correlate to the final carcass calls on each group of cattle.
http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx
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alexfarms



Posts : 0
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 59
Location : Gypsum, KS

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:19 pm

MKeeney wrote:
more American Hustle...

TAPPING INTO THE REAL MARKET

An important objective of any purchasing organization is to leave every seller with the perception that they are beating the market with their transaction. If the broader market lacks transparency then the trick is to benchmark everyone to something visible that they can see and convince them they are better off than what they see.

Aids in this deception are $1 over contracts. With extremely small pools of live cash cattle, it becomes easy to point to the cash trade and offer $1 over or build a grid based on the cash reported trade. Of course, the cash trade may include Mexican cattle, typically discounted $35/head or brahmin offerings or heiferettes. Unless the seller can identify the actual cattle and the actual carcass results when they are reported, benchmarking against this small pool means very little.  
This past week demonstrated the dangers of reporting cash trades dependent on a small pool of cattle that becomes representative of a much larger pool. The risk is volatility. So many cattle are committed under so many varying arrangements that this small pool is setting the stage for extreme results.

Two week's ago the seeds of this distortion in the market were apparent. Packers purchased all the cattle they could in the small pool of cash trades at $130. They dared not up the cash price for fear of pricing formula cattle higher so they purchased a few more cattle at higher prices, but established those trades in the beef. In the beef purchases are difficult to read because they are not accompanied by the carcass results.  

Packers were still short of inventory coming into Christmas week and found stubborn sellers among the small pool of cash sellers. Stubborn sellers in a restricted sized pool of cattle means high volatility. High volatility does not favor packers or feeders but increases the odds of high price variations. The week before Christmas should have seen market prices at $132 instead of $130 and now those prices have pushed to $136.

All of this would be solved by a cash market build on negotiated grids for carcass beef. One trade standard for the industry would place all transactions on the same footing and correlate to the final carcass calls on each group of cattle.
http://www.agcenter.com/newcattlereport.aspx

Its a game played on many fronts. The packers are winning. I went to the movie, AMERICAN HUSTLE. Its all about the money.
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Bob H



Posts : 292
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Mon Jan 06, 2014 6:35 am

In my opinion it is what you do as an individual when you decide to market your property (cattle). There are a lot of different options sometimes when you put the boys with the girls people should think out side of the box. No matter how large or small a cow calf operation is it will never be more than one half of one days kill in the US or 55000 hd so it is up to us as producers to dig out what will be profitable when we put the bulls in with the cows and get on with it. Packers will come and go we have no control but we do control what we do.

Bob H
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MKeeney
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PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:36 am

I suppose this properly fits under "lost generation"...just wanted to comment on the poor job one of our members did cheering for the Packers yesterday, who went down in defeat more to the disappointment of Linda than even I...
maybe our guy was too interested in hogging the spotlight as exhibited in this selfie he send via phone...

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alexfarms



Posts : 0
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 59
Location : Gypsum, KS

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Mon Jan 06, 2014 11:01 am

MKeeney wrote:
I suppose this properly fits under "lost generation"...just wanted to comment on the poor job one of our members did cheering for the Packers yesterday, who went down in defeat more to the disappointment of Linda than even I...
maybe our guy was too interested in hogging the spotlight as exhibited in this selfie he send via phone...


Oh ya, sorry about that. I wasn't referring to those packers winning. lol
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alexfarms



Posts : 0
Join date : 2013-08-21
Age : 59
Location : Gypsum, KS

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Mon Jan 06, 2014 5:43 pm

Bob H wrote:
In my opinion it is what you do as an individual when you decide to market your property (cattle). There are a lot of different options sometimes when you put the boys with the girls people should think out side of the box. No matter how large or small a cow calf operation is it will never be more than one half of one days kill in the US or 55000 hd so it is up to us as producers to dig out what will be profitable when we put the bulls in with the cows and get on with it. Packers will come and go we have no control but we do control what we do.

Bob H

The cow/calf producers control in the market is pretty small compared to the packers control. Packers have a tendency to more gobble each other up and get bigger than come and go. I grew up in a farmer/feeder area of northeast Nebraska (the corn belt). The decline of the large finished cattle open out cry auction markets was a pretty significant event in the cattle industry. The maneuvers of the packers pointed out in Mike's post would not have been as meaningfull if a stronger fat cattle auction market existed today. Cattle supplies are low now, so the packers should be on their heels in the market. It won't always be that way. Maintaining competitive relationships between the vertical segments of the beef industry ought to be our goal if we want a fair, market derived price when we sell our stock.
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Bob H



Posts : 292
Join date : 2011-02-17
Location : SW Idaho

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Tue Jan 07, 2014 7:16 am

My post was about the cow calf person has no control over the fat commodity market. What we do have control over is the genetics of our cattle and the ability to use the future board up to 2 years in advance, market cattle when you put the bulls with cows,(Heartbrand Akaushi) Sell a year in advance to a Natural program, IE Meyers, Five Rivers etc. Join a coop like Country Natural beef. The choice you make is yours.

I think that the large cattle feeding company's are a struggle as they have to compete with the packers and will end up losing in the end.

Bob H
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RobertMac



Posts : 262
Join date : 2010-09-28
Location : Mississippi, USA

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Tue Jan 07, 2014 11:23 am

Your best security comes when your per head cost is less than that of a producer in another part of the world to raise theirs and ship it here...packers are global.
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LCP



Posts : 49
Join date : 2012-04-16
Location : north central SD

PostSubject: Re: The Lost Generation   Tue Jan 07, 2014 3:19 pm

I'm pretty new to to world of marketing finished animals, but I wonder if physical auction markets are the only option to have competitive markets? Social media is making it hard for packer bids to be kept a secret. I follow a handful of feeders and traders on Twitter who post cash cattle bids, offers, & trades as they happen in real time. It isn't mandatory USDA reporting, it is guys with crap on their boots working together by sharing information. This helps me as I talk to my feedlot guy about what I'd take for mine when they are ready. For me, its better than hauling them to the barn and taking whatever they give me on that day. This way I have a little more flexibility because they are still in the feedlot, not standing at the barn. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with auction barns, but to me it seems like they aren't the only way to have a functional cash market.
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The Lost Generation
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